Climate Vulnerability
in Bulgaria
A new scientific perspective on how climate change is reshaping Bulgaria’s environment, economy and society.
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KALINA'S STORY
Kalina is fourteen years old.
She lives in Sofia.
33°C
The temperature inside her classroom.
SUMMER 2023
Tsarevo.
Kalina and her family are spending their summer by the sea.
They eat ice cream on a street near the coast.
A few weeks later...
She recognizes the same street on the news.
This time, it is underwater.
Kalina looks for answers.
She reads that Bulgaria has a national strategy for adaptation to climate change.
But the answers to her questions are difficult to find.
TODAY
Kalina has finished school.
She has to decide what she wants her future to be.
Where should she study?
Where should she work?
Where should she live?
But how?
Have you ever felt like Kalina?
How many of us have found ourselves asking the same questions at some point in our lives?
This report begins where her questions begin.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Climate change in Bulgaria is no longer a forecast.
It is already being felt through more frequent heat waves, prolonged droughts, sudden floods and weakening ecosystems.
HEAT WAVES
DROUGHTS
FLOODS
ECOSYSTEM PRESSURE
CLIMATE CHANGE PERFORMANCE INDEX 2025
50
out of 64
Bulgaria ranks 50th out of 64 countries.
POOR
VERY POOR
VERY POOR
MEDIUM
A WARMING COUNTRY
Average air temperature in Bulgaria, 1950–2100
According to the CCLM4-8-18 model, Bulgaria’s average air temperature is projected to continue rising throughout the century.
Panayotov, K (2024)
*Evaluating climate projections for Bulgaria:A framework using regional climate models. In Sixth International Conference “Climate, atmosphere and water resources in the face of climate change” (Hisarya, Bulgaria, 24–28 September 2024).
THE KNOWLEDGE GAP
The evidence is growing.
The picture remains fragmented.
Despite growing evidence, existing assessments remain fragmented and outdated, often confined within disciplinary or institutional boundaries.
Bulgaria lacks a comprehensive, science-based national synthesis connecting physical climate trends, sectoral impacts and regional vulnerabilities.
A JOINT NATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Bringing Bulgaria’s climate knowledge together.
The report “Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Impacts of Climate Change in Bulgaria: A Joint National Assessment” brings this picture together for the first time with this level of methodological integration.
Authors of the report represent the following research entities:
NIMH
National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
BAS
Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research
SOFIA UNIVERSITY
Faculty of Economics and Business Administration & Faculty of Geology and Geography
NCPHA
National Center of Public Health and Analyses
TU SOFIA
TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY – SOFIA
IGIT
Institute for Geospatial, Research and Technology
Sofia University,
“St. Kliment Ohridski”
The research was conducted with the financial support of the European Climate Foundation (ECF).
The project is an initiative of Net-Zero Lab at the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University, which coordinates the research network.
The authors participate in their personal research capacity and are responsible for the content of their respective chapters.
THREE INTERCONNECTED DIMENSIONS
Understanding climate vulnerability as one interconnected system.
The integration of scientific contributions provides a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts across three interconnected analytical domains.
NATURAL SYSTEMS
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
PUBLIC HEALTH
CLIMATE
VULNERABILITY
Considering these three domains together is key to developing effective adaptation policies that reflect the regional specificities of climate vulnerability.
KEY FINDINGS
Climate risks do not happen in isolation.
Climate change in Bulgaria is already moving beyond the boundaries of natural climate variability.
HEAT WAVES
HEAT-RELATED
MORTALITY
INTENSE
RAINFALL
FLASH FLOODS
FOREST
DEGRADATION
BIODIVERSITY
LOSS
AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY
OF DOBRUJA
URBAN
HEAT ISLAND
BULGARIA
These processes reinforce one another.
Their systemic nature requires an integrated approach to climate adaptation that reflects regional differences in vulnerability.
Methodological note
The map shows a composite climate risk score (0–10) for Bulgaria's 28 administrative districts, calculated as the geometric mean of a hazard-and-exposure index and the JRC Vulnerability Index, following the aggregation logic of the INFORM Risk Index methodology (JRC, 2017). The hazard-and-exposure component follows the Germanwatch Climate Risk Index methodology (2025), combining 15 regional climate-hazard indicators with population data. Underlying hazard indicators are drawn from Net-Zero Lab’s report on Bulgaria’s climate vulnerability (2026); population figures from NSI (2025). Administrative boundaries: Simplemaps (CC BY 4.0).
EXPLORE THE RESEARCH
Explore the science behind the assessment.
Dive deeper into the methodology, evidence and sector-specific findings behind Bulgaria’s climate vulnerability assessment.
Physical Climate Trends & Extreme Events
03
Air Temperature & Extreme Temperature Events in Bulgaria
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04
Rainfall Variability & Drought
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05
Flood Risk in a Changing Climate
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06
Climate Challenges & Risks in Urban Areas
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07
Severe Storms over Bulgaria
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08
Wildfire Risk & Environmental Impact
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Climate Impacts
KALINA STARTED WITH QUESTIONS.
Better decisions start with better evidence.
Understanding where Bulgaria is vulnerable today is the first step towards building resilience for tomorrow.
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