AGRICULTURE & FOOD PRODUCTION
Climate change is reshaping the conditions under which Bulgaria grows its food.
Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall and longer droughts are changing Bulgaria’s agroclimatic resources. The effects reach far beyond individual crops — influencing soil moisture, productivity, crop quality and the long-term resilience of food production.
SCROLL TO EXPLORE ↓
01 / A MORE UNCERTAIN GROWING ENVIRONMENT
Agriculture is increasingly exposed to several climate pressures at once.
Climate change affects sustainable food production through multiple interconnected pressures. Abiotic stress, soil erosion, biodiversity loss and declining productivity can reinforce one another as growing conditions become more difficult to predict.
Heat and water stress place crops under increasingly difficult growing conditions.
Climate pressures can accelerate land degradation and weaken productive capacity.
Changing environmental conditions affect the ecological systems supporting agriculture.
Yield stability becomes harder to maintain when climatic stresses accumulate.
02 / BULGARIA’S MOISTURE CHALLENGE
The problem is not simply how much rain falls — but when crops receive it.
Bulgaria lies within a zone of unstable moisture conditions. Average annual precipitation reaches around 550–600 mm, yet rainfall is distributed unevenly and can be insufficient during critical phases of crop development.
millimetres per year
Rainfall may not coincide with the periods when crops need moisture most.
Warming and prolonged dry periods are changing agroclimatic resources.
The result is greater year-to-year variation in production and a higher risk of reduced or compromised yields.
03 / WINTER WHEAT
For wheat, water availability is becoming one of the defining limits on productivity.
A simulation study based on the growth characteristics of 60 current winter wheat varieties assessed how yields could change under future weather conditions generated with the ALADIN Climate model.
used to simulate productivity under future climatic conditions.
Yields are closely linked to total precipitation between sowing and full maturity.
The relationship between rainfall and yield is more strongly expressed.
04 / THE DROUGHT SHIFT
After 2037, simulations point toward substantially longer periods without rain.
The projected increase in drought duration is one of the clearest risks for winter wheat. Existing varieties may retain their potential yield, but realised production becomes strongly dependent on the length of dry periods.
drought days
drought days
Drought is expected to become particularly prolonged in southern Bulgaria, with Plovdiv, Yambol, Sandanski and Ruse identified among the strongly affected locations in the modelling study.
05 / WHEN YIELDS BEGIN TO FALL
There is a major difference between a dry spell and a prolonged drought.
The simulations show that wheat productivity can remain close to its potential during shorter dry periods. Once drought extends beyond several weeks, the impact changes dramatically.
Productivity can remain close to, or equal to, the potential yield.
THRESHOLD
Yields decrease substantially across all examined cases.
06 / FIELD EVIDENCE FROM DOBRUDZHA
Climate stress affects not only how much wheat is produced, but how the crop develops.
A large study in the Dobrudzha region examined 20 wheat varieties between 2018 and 2020. Unfavourable conditions were associated with lower productivity and a longer vegetation period.
wheat varieties
07 / CEREAL YIELDS
Recent agricultural data already shows how differently major cereal crops are responding.
The agricultural report compares average yields across Bulgaria’s main cereal crops over a three-year period. Recent patterns reveal significant pressure on maize production, while barley has followed a different trajectory.
Average yields of Bulgaria’s principal cereal crops in 2022–2024, measured in tonnes per hectare.
Average yield t/ha
average annual reduction
compared with the previous period
increasing area alongside progressively rising yields
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Annual Report on the State and Development of Agriculture, Agrostatistics Department.
08 / ESSENTIAL-OIL CROPS
Different crops respond to climate variability in very different ways.
Yield and essential-oil quality depend on the variety, but also strongly on environmental conditions. The response differs substantially between crops.
Associated with lower oil yields and reduced quality indicators.
Can result in weaker plant development during the growing season.
Productivity is strongly influenced by changing climatic conditions.
Relatively low productivity, but values remain more stable between years.
Shows the greatest yield stability under contrasting climatic conditions.
09 / YIELD IS NOT THE WHOLE STORY
Climate conditions can also change the quality of the grain itself.
The productivity and quality of cereal crops are genetically determined, but they are also influenced by agricultural practices, the climatic conditions of each year and the agroecological characteristics of the region.
Supported by the balance between gliadins and glutenins.
10 / ADAPTING THE FARMING SYSTEM
Adaptation will require changes in what is grown, when it is grown and how resources are managed.
Longer droughts combined with higher average daily temperatures make timely adaptation increasingly important. Research points toward changes in agricultural practice rather than a single solution.
Adjust crop timing to changing temperature and moisture conditions.
Use long-term evidence on ecological plasticity and yield stability.
Crops such as sorghum can offer greater resilience to adverse conditions.
Improve resilience while helping reduce production costs.
Use technology to increase precision and optimise agricultural operations.
11 / RESOURCE EFFICIENCY
The long-term challenge is to produce food reliably while using increasingly constrained resources.
Recent conditions in Bulgaria have been characterised by atmospheric and soil moisture deficits during the active growing period and the formation of crop yields. Improving resource-use efficiency therefore matters for both food security and climate resilience.
12 / THE BIGGER PICTURE
Climate resilience in agriculture will depend on coordinated adaptation, not one isolated intervention.
Food insecurity and climate change are interconnected challenges. Addressing them requires long-term coordination between farmers, researchers, institutions, technology providers and other stakeholders across the agricultural system.
Future resilience will depend on adapting crop choice and timing, improving resource efficiency, adopting regenerative methods and using digital technologies to make farming more precise.
Chapter author: Nikolay Yordanov, PhD student, Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research – Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS)
CONTINUE EXPLORING
English 
Bulgarian